Ultimate Fight Night Recap

by: BadVibes

With all the work on the new web-site, I’ve hardly had a chance to post the Fight Night recap, so here it comes.

Fight night was kicked off with Nebraska’s own Houston Alexander in a do-or-die bout with Eric “Ravishing Red” Shafer. Dana White said, leading up to the fight, that this was a must win for Alexander who had been stopped in his last 2 appearances in the octagon. Alexander came out strong, and looked to have the fight under control, stuffing “Red’s” takedowns and dishing out punishment, but the BJJ expert eventually got him to the ground, and it was all over. Alexander succumbed to an arm triangle with 7 seconds left in the first round… back to the minor leagues with Alexander.

Ed Herman and Alan Belcher were up next in a middleweight bout. Both were coming off big losses and looking to reestablish themselves in the division. Belcher looked crisp on his feet, but Herman hung in there and dished out some leather of his own. Herman was able to get the fight to the ground 3 times where he dominated the action. In the end Belcher won a narrow split decision. I saw the fight as 29-28 Herman, but what the hell do I know. I continue to be unimpressed with Belcher, and Herman is tough as nails, but his record now drops to under .500 and he needs to right the ship or he might be joining Alexander on the way out.

In a lightweight tilt perennial fan favorite Clay Guida took on TUF winner Mac Danzig. Danzig looked to have things under control in the first round. His striking was crisp and accurate, and he was definitely getting the better of the exchanges on the feet. However, he wore down under “the carpenters” ferocious pace, and lost the last 2 rounds, unable to avoid the takedown late in the fight. Guida improves his record to 4-3 in the octagon via unanimous decision victory.

“Will someone stop being a pussy and fight my brother,” those were the words of the victorious Nate Diaz, and how true they are. EiteXC lightweight champ KJ Noons has been ducking Nate’s older brother since beating him by stoppage due to a cut in their first meeting. All I want to know is why did the UFC ever get rid of Nick Diaz? Sure he’s brash and cocky, but him and his brother come out to fight every time. The world of MMA needs more guys like them. Nate Diaz looked spectacular in his bout with Josh Neer, so much so that Neer was even surprised that it was a split decision. Diaz keeps stepping up his game as the UFC ups the ante with tougher opponents, and put on a BJJ clinic against Neer. I’d love to see him and Guida fight.

As for my picks: I went 8-2. I was off to a smoking start predicting the Massenzio upset over Drew McFedries, and went 6 for 6 in the prelims, but Houston Alexander had to come and ruin my fun. He broke my perfect streak and took a dump on my parlay. Thank you very much “Collapsin’ assassin.” The other fight that I missed was the Herman/Belcher fight, which in all honesty, could have gone either way. So I ended the night up 1.2 units thanks to Mike Massenzio, and all-in-all the fights were pretty good. Hell, I really can’t complain when the UFC keeps giving us quality free fights on Spike.

The Ultimate Fighter 8: Season Premier Re-cap

by: Marcus Collins


Well, it's back! The eighth installment of the acclaimed TUF (The Ultimate Fighter) reality series, this time around it's Team Mir vs. Team Nogueria . Things will probably look really familiar to veterans of the series, bringing back multiple weight classes instead of one, like the previous season. This time it's the lightweights and light heavyweights set to do reality TV battle. Anyone who saw the first episode, which debuted on spike wed September 19th at 10 ET, knows that there is no lack of personality from these 32 fighters. It should be an entertaining season, the field of 32 will be reduced to 16, and legendary coaches Frank Mir and Antonio Rodrigo Nogueria will welcome 8 lightweights and 8 light heavyweights to their chance at becoming the “Ultimate Fighter.”

Similar to last season, fighters must earn a spot in the house by winning a 2 round preliminary fight. This method was first introduced to keep the crybabies out, and I think fans agree, this is the way it should be. Too many times in the past we have seen guy's kicked off the show by Dana White for not making weight, or missing their girlfriends, or just generally being more cut out for MTV’s the real world than the UFC. Speaking of not making weight, Jason Guida, brother of UFC star and fan favorite, Clay Guida, will be better known as the guy who ate his way to a disqualification. After weighing in at a husky 217 lbs., he was only able to cut enough weight to get down to 207, prompting the Nevada State Athletic commission’s Executive Director Keith Kizer to step in and disqualify him. Kizer stated that he just could not allow Guida to cut anymore weight due to doctor recommendations. How does a guy not make weight? It's not like they called him the night before and told him he is on this show called The Ultimate Fighter? Reserve fighter Mike Stuart was welcomed in to replace Guida. He was promptly welcomed out by IFL veteran Krzyszynski Soszynski by first round KO, and the episode was rolling.

The first lightweight bout saw Dave Kaplan win by first round rear naked choke against Fernando Bernstein. Joe Duarte and Philippe Nover fought next, and although it looked good for Duarte early on, Nover finished him in the second round by submission. Earlier in the episode Nover fainted as Dana White walked in, due to what he claimed was the Nevada heat, prompting White to dub him "fainting" Philippe. After the fight however, White retracted the statement saying, “that guy is the real deal.”

Vinny Magalhaes earned a spot in the house thanks to his the first round stoppage of Lance Evans, brother of light heavyweight Rashad "I just scored the sickest knockout on the iceman" Evans, and was forced to quit due to a rib injury. Antwain Britt, also earned a spot in the house with a dominant win over a game Ryan Jimmo.

In a crazy turn of events, lightweight Brian McLaughlin took a knee to the head from Brandon Garner while down and could not continue. The match was ruled a no contest, and Garner was eliminated because he had thrown the knee. This allowed McLaughlin to get into the final 16, and rightfully so. McLaughlin looked to be dominating the fight up until that point, the knee was just unfortunate.

Love him or hate him, there is no doubt Junie Browning is going to make some noise this season. He was quoted as saying, "I hear they have free booze in the house." Browning took on Jose Aguillar who likened himself to Hitler and Napolean, and that’s about all he did. Junie made short work of him. Jose Agulliar retired in his corner after the first round beating from Browning. When asked if Aguillar had a chance to beat him Junie Browning replied "he has a better chance of getting me pregnant." I might have chosen a different analogy, but you can’t knock the guy, he was right. Both coaches were really impressed with Browning, there is no question.

Next week we see the final matches to determine the last 8 fighters to join the Ultimate Fighter house. Check back here after the show to catch another recap.

Fighters in the house:

LIGHT HEAVYWEIGHTS
Krzysztof Soszynski
Jules Bruchez
Vinny Magalhaes
Antwain Britt

LIGHTWEIGHTS
Dave Kaplan
Philippe Nover
Brian McLaughlin
Junie Browning

UFC Fight Night 15 Picks and Predictions

Due to feverish efforts to get the new website up and running, I’ve once again neglected to do a fight breakdown. Just so I can sleep tonight, I’m going to give you a quick run down of the fights, and my picks. In the future our picks will be available in a newsletter. We will still post them on the blog, but every event there will be a newsletter to let you know how we’re picking.

Tonight’s offering, UFC Fight Night 15, is not laden with star power, but is stacked with great match-ups. Starting from the top; I can’t wait to see Nate Diaz fight again. He will be locking horns with Miletich product Josh Neer, in what will probably be his stiffest test to date. Diaz was the season 5 TUF winner and has looked impressive since the close of the show. Neer, while big and tough, is hardly remarkable. I see him pushing the pace early, but falling into a Diaz submission late in the second or early in the third round.

In the other big bout of the night Clay Guida takes on another TUF winner in Mac Danzig. Guida has proven to be both exiting and durable, but has always come up just short it the big fights. Mac Danzig on the other hand is a more well-rounded fighter with an impressive record, but I just don’t see Danzig making it happen tonight. Guida has got cardio that makes marathon runners sick and I think he will push “the violent vegan” to a unanimous decision. This one is really close, and I think it will be the fight of the night.

Dangerous striker Alan Belcher takes on Ed Herman, in a battle of the beatens. Both fighters are coming off of high profile losses. Herman was dispatched by Demian Maia in his last outing, and Belcher got blasted by UFC newcomer Jason Day. Clearly both of these men would like to rebound with a win, but alas, only one shall pass. Herman’s ground game and wrestling are going to be enough to frustrate the “Talent” and ride him to a unanimous decision victory.

Nebraska native Houston Alexander will be fighting tonight with his career on the line. Dana White has said that if Alexander doesn’t perform well tonite that it could be back to the minors for him. I don’t think he’ll need any more motivation in this fight because, quite frankly, he’s just going to demolish his opponent. Eric Shafer has never showed me any signs of being special, and tonight he is just serving as a stepping stone, first round KO for Alexander. This one will be over quick.

So for the record my picks are:

Nate Diaz
Clay Guida
Ed Herman
Houston Alexander
Alessio Sakara
Wilson Gouveia
Jou Lauzon
Jason Brilz
Mike Massenzio
Dan Miller

Plays:

I don’t like the lines on this card. I’m only going to make 2 small safe bets here:
Massenzio (+320) for 1 unit
Parlay Diaz and Alexander for 2 units

Keeping it safe with the tight lines again, looks like the capper’s are starting to get the hang of this MMA thing. Check back tomorrow for a re-cap of last nights events. It should a great night of fights.

Heavy Metal MMA... Giving Full Contact a Facelift

Welcome to the revolution you fiends. HeavyMetalMMA.com has officially been launched. It’s currently in rough form, as we are working through some formatting issues, but most of the new features are working as of now. We have officially compiled our base line top 10 lists, and will be looking forward to reader input to create the most non-biased, accurate top 10 on the web. Also, you’ll be able to contact our staff through the site and tell us how much you love our work, or how much you think we’re retarded and our opinion sucks. The point is: You the reader are an integral part of growing and improving this site, so don’t hold back.

Enjoy the new web-site. Look forward to hearing from you all.

Blogspot users here's the link: www.heavymetalmma.com

Heavy Metal MMA to launch new web-site

I apologize for the lack of recent coverage on the blog. I'm in the process of building a dedicated web-site for Heavy Metal MMA. The new site will still contain the blog for news and rumors around the world of MMA, but we will be adding some new features. There will be an official rankings page which will be determined by our expert panel and fan votes. A bi-weekly newsletter with recent betting lines, picks, and rankings mix-ups will also be available. This is just the first of many expansions. I assure you that you will still be getting the same sarastic, non-biased blog news, just with a little extra mustard on it.

The new site should be live by next weekend, but don't worry I'll keep posting here as well for a while

Dolla Dolla Bill Y'all: BadVibes Betting plays for UFC 88

Let me preface these plays by saying that I don't think this fight card is prime for big gains. Quite frankly, I'll be happy with a small win on this card. I'm betting this one more as an action junkie than expert. That being said here are my plays:

Parlay Henderson and Liddell for 1 unit

Strait bet on Marquardt for 2 units

Strait bet on Lambert for 2 units

1/2 unit strait bets on Brown, Pellegrino, and Hamill

Check back for the results after the fights. Like I said these are action bets. The lines are tight on these fights and I don't see much bettors edge here, so be reasonable when making your picks, and remember that WES 36 is coming up in a couple weeks with some great betting opprotunities.

UFC 88 Picks and Predictions from BadVibes and Golden Joe

After a weekend full of hurricane alerts and power outages, UFC 88 will be a welcome distraction. The first card in Atlanta has some great match-ups, but bettors beware, the lines on these fights are really tough, and I don’t see this card as a prime betting opportunity.

As always me and Golden Joe will be breaking down the card and giving you our betting plays. Fight time is less than 5 hours away, so I’ll dispense with the drab commentary, and get to the picks.

Liddell (-260) vs. Evans (+200)

BadVibes: Joe and I might disagree a lot on this card, but here we are on the same page. Evans is just outmatched in the main event. Liddell is hungry and experienced, and I see him giving Evans trouble early and often. Liddell by KO round 1

Golden Joe: This is an easy pick. Rashad has matured a lot as a fighter, but with Liddell, he has bitten off a little more than he can chew. He’ll get dominated in this fight by the more experienced Liddell. Liddel by KO round 1

Franklin (-230) vs. Hamill (+180)

BadVibes: This is a lot closer of a fight than the sports books predict. No doubt Hamill is tough as nails, but can he hang with the more experienced Franklin. I really like Hamill as a betting play because the line should be closer to a coin flip, but I have to say its more likely that Franklin wins this one. He has more big fight experience than Hamill, and is just generally a more well-rounded fighter. Franklin by split decision

Golden Joe: These fighter’s careers are like a hooker’s bedroom, somebody’s going in right as the other is going out. Hamill is on his way up in the UFC and Franklin who has had an excellent career and is a grade A fighter might be on his way out. Hamill by TKO round 1

Henderson (-185) vs. Palhares (+145)

BadVibes: Henderson is a legend of the sport, one of the last true gladiators. While Palhares is a formidable opponent, I think he’s going to be on the losing end of this one. He’s outreached by a fighter who is a better striker and wrestler, with his only chance of victory coming on the ground. Henderson by TKO round 2

Golden Joe: Palhares, who surprisingly isn’t a bigger underdog on the card, has the chance to be remembered as a surprising winner of UFC 88. His Brazilian jujitsu may be the deciding factor in this fight. Palhares by submission round 3

Kampman (+125) vs. Marquardt (-155)

BadVibes: This will be the most exciting fight of the night. Both fighters are tough and game, but I give the edge to Marquardt. Kampman is giving a lot of size to “Nate the great,” and I don’t think he’ll be able to stop Marquardt from taking him down. Kampman will show glimpses of hope, but ultimately he’ll be overpowered by the bigger more physical fighter. Marquardt by unanimous decision

Golden Joe: Great card for UFC 88, this fight promises to be a slug fest. I believe Kampman with his Thai boxing and ability to finish with the submission will win this fight. Kampman by strikes leading to the submission in round 2

That does it for the main card. With the Yosida vs. Parisian fight scratched, who knows which other compelling match-up will make the televised portion of UFC 88. Here are the quick picks for the undercard:


Tavares (-280) vs. Pellegrino (+210)

BadVibes: Pellegrino. Great underdog pick here.
Golden Joe: Tavares.

Boetch (-500) vs. Patt (+300)

BadVibes: Boetch
Golden Joe: Betch

Kim (-400) vs. Brown (+275)

BadVibes: Brown
Golde Joe: Kim

Lambert (+130) vs. MacDonald (-170)

BadVibes: Lambert. Another good dog play here.
Golden Joe: Lambert. I concur.

Carniero (-110) vs. Chonan (-130)

BadVibes: Chonan.
Golden Joe: Carniero

The Return of "the Natural": Randy Couture returns to the UFC

The MMA world saw Christmas come a little early this week. As Dana White announced earlier this week in a conference call that UFC hall-of-famer, Randy Couture, would be returning to the octagon.

The news came as a surprise to most, because Couture has been entrenched in a no-holds-barred legal cage match with UFC parent company, Zuffa. Brock Lesnar has been named as Couture’s opponent in his returning fight. Needless to say that Couture will have his hands full with the mammoth Minnesotan this November.

Couture’s new deal is for three fights which may include a unification bout with Antonio Rodrigo Noguiera, provided the Natural can get past Lesnar. There are also rumors that the UFC will try to make the Fedor fight happen. However, I’m not holding my breath.

It will be great to see Couture fight again, but I think the Lesnar fight is a bad way to dust off the ring rust after a yearlong layoff. I guess we’ll find out come November. Until then, best of luck Randy, you’re going to need it.

The Real Deal: Brock Lesnar

In the male soap-opera we call professional wrestling, Brock Lesnar has been at the top of the food chain. Tonight he proved to the world that he’s a contender in the world of non-scripted fighting. Plain and simple Lesnar just overwhelmed his opponent, Heath Herring, the entire fight. Credit to Herring to hang in there for 15 minutes, but he was on the bad side of one hell of an epic beatdown. Can anyone really deal with Lesnar’s size and strength? He’s a rookie in the grand scheme of things, and tonight he handed a seasoned veteran a humbling loss.

Let’s get strait to the point… Brock Lesnar is going to hoist UFC heavyweight gold one day. It’s just a shame that he got into this sport so late. If Lesnar had as much experience as Herring, we’d be talking about him instead of Fedor as the heavyweight #1.

UFC 87: Fight Predictions

In just 3 hours fans in Minnesota will get to see the states first ever UFC fight card. There’s some interesting action going down tonight, so let’s break down the fights.

Jon Fitch vs. Georges St. Pierre

GSP comes into this fight a heavy favorite in the sportsbook’s eyes. Fitch is seen as an almost 3 to 1 dog in this fight, and while there’s been a lot of talk about Fitch giving GSP more of a fight than we expect, I think this line is right on. St. Pierre is one of the best p4p fighters in the world, and Fitch while a tough and worthy competitor, does not have the tools to take the fight to GSP in any realm. This one might start slow, Fitch might even take the first round, but GSP will find his rythym and finish the fight via TKO in the third round.

Brock Lesnar vs. Heath Herring

What could make a guy with a 1-1 record a favorite over a fighter with 40 pro fights. When that guy is Brock Lesnar. As much as I want to see the former WWE wrestler get his ass handed to him, I know it won’t happen. Herring was taken down at will in the Jake O’brien fight, and Lesnar’s wrestling is on a whole different level. This fight is going to be quick, so don’t blink. Lesnar by TKO in the opening minutes.

Kenny Florian vs. Roger Huerta

Does anyone have a coin? You might as well flip a coin to pick this fight because its going to be razor tight. I give the edge to Florian because of his experience in big fights. Huerta always seems to dig his way out of trouble in every fight, and Kenny Florian is not a guy that will let you get away with it. All of his 9 career victories have been decisive finishes… that being said I think that Huerta will be the first guy to take Florian to a decision. Florian by unanimous decision

Manny Gamburyan vs. Rob Emerson

Expert Judoka and umpa-lumpa body double Manny Gamburyan will take on Rob Emerson in an interesting fight. This is a classic grappler vs. striker match-up. For just a strait prediction I have to go with Gamburyan via decision, but the line on this fight is off. These two fighters are much more evenly matched than the 3 to 1 favorite Gamburyan would tell you. For my prediction I’ll be sticking with Gamburyan, but the line dictates that I need to make a play on Emerson…. This is going to be a very boring close fight.

Damian Maia vs. Jason MacDonald

If this were a jui jitsu match there would be no doubt that Maia would dominate, but its not, it’s MMA. Maia’s ground prowess is impressive, but he is way too one dimensional. The “Athlete” has enough skill to keep the fight standing and punish Maia. Another red flag that I see with Maia is his conditioning. After the first round of the Ed Herman fight Maia was gassing. That’s a dangerous proposition when Jason MacDonald is standing across the cage from you. I see MacDonald’s well rounded attack paying dividends and he wins via decision.

Undercard

McCrory over Cummo via TKO
Kongo over Evenson via KO
Gusmao over Jones via Sub.
Wilson over Bruno via Sub.
Saunders over Thomas via Decision

That’s the picks for this card folks. I really like the line on the Tamden McCrory fight. He’s a total beast and he is going to smoke Luke Cummo. This fight is a lock, and I’m going to have some action on it for sure. Enjoy the fights and be sure to check back for a re-cap after the fight.

UFC 90: Rumored Showdowns in the Windy City

October 25th, 2008, the UFC will hold its first ever show in my hometown Chicago, Illinois. Being a city with such a rich boxing and fighting tradition, it’s suprising to me that it’s taken this long. The only confirmed bout at this time is Anderson Silva vs. Patrick Cote for the UFC middleweight title. The “Spider” will look to continue turning top 185 pounders into clips for his highlight reel. While the Canadian, Cote, will look to shock the world ala Matt Serra vs. GSP I.

Also rumored to be on the card are a trio of solid lightweight bouts. Melvin Guillard will lock horns with Spencer Fisher in what’s sure to be a barnburner. Guillard rebounded from consecutive losses in the octagon with a brutal KO of Denis Siver at UFC 86. Fisher, a Miletich product, will look to build off his win over Jeremy Stephens at the most recent TUF finale. Sean Sherk is also rumored to be returning to action at UFC 90. He will face the fight of the night king Tyson Griffin in a lightweight contender elimination bout. Hermes Franca is also rumored to be in action in the windy city against American Top Team standout Gleison Tibau. Both are coming off of a loss, so this should be a good one.

There have also been rumors of Fabricio Werdum, Cain Velasquez, and Antoni Hardonk representing the heavyweights at the showdown in the second city. In addition Diego Sanchez will meet Thaigo Alves to more than likely determine who will get a crack at the winner of GSP vs. Fitch.

This card is shaping up to be a good one… Hope to see you there.

Quentin Jackson Fires Jaunito Ibarra

Inside MMA is reporting that Quentin “rampage” Jackson has fired trainer and manager Juanito Ibarra. Just a short while back Jackson was crediting Ibarra with turning his career around. I guess the honeymoon is over. Right now it seems Jackson would be better served concentrating on his mounting legal problems than on his management. The news comes on the heels of losing his light heavyweight belt to Forrest Griffin. No word on who will be managing ”rampage” now, or even when he’ll be ready to fight. I just hope he gets things sorted out. He seems like a good guy, and the match-ups at 205 are so much better with him in there.

Bas Rutten: Godpeed and Party On

I’m sure anyone reading this has probably seen this video, but it’s a classic, and can never be watched enough. So bong, bong, bong, dedang, adedang, adedang… enjoy!

Affliction:Day of Reckoning

Affliction has announced that it will be moving forward with its sophomore attempt on October, 11th in Las Vegas, Nevada. There are a lot of rumors circulating as to who will be fighting on the latest card, but the only official match-up pits 2 former UFC heavyweight champions against each other. Andrei “the pitbull” Arlovski will face “the babyface assassin” Josh Barnett in the nights main event. Both fighters are coming off of impressive wins at Affliction: Banned, and will look to grab the #1 contender spot and a future throw-down with Fedor Emelianenko.

Also rumored to be on the card is a 205 pound bout between Renato “babalu” Sobral and former UFC light heavyweight champion Tito Ortiz. It baffles me how these 2 never met inside the octagon. Ortiz will be looking to rebound after a lack-luster effort against Lyoto Machida in his last fight with the UFC. Also rumored to be on the card is a rematch between Vladamir Matyushenko and Antonio Rogerio Nogueira. “Little nog” looked impressive in his win at the last affliction card over Edwin Dewees

Vitor Belfort and Matt Lindland could also lock horns at the “day of reckoning” card for the WAMMA middleweight belt. Now I like both these fighters, but I thought WAMMA was supposed to crown the best fighter in each weight class, and right now there’s not an educated MMA fan that would tell you anyone other than Anderson Silva is the top dog. An interesting fight nonetheless. Lindland looked gassed in his last fight and Vitor looked like the “phenom” of old. This is a fight that Matt Lindland can’t afford to take lightly. If he does Belfort is going to eat him up.

Tim Sylvia, Aleksander Emelianenko, Pedro Rizzo, and former IFL heavyweight champ Roy Nelson are also rumored to be fighting. Most of this is just speculation right now… More to come when we get word.

WEC 35: Recap

Well, the weekend has come and gone, and we’ve all been treated to a action packed fight card courtesy WEC 35. Carlos Condit and Jamie Varner looked impressive as they both finished their opponents and defended their belts. Brian Stann on the other hand was handed a beating he won’t soon forget in his rematch with the new light heavyweight champ Steve Cantwell.

Stann came out and intended to bang with Cantwell, and bang he did. He banged his face right into Cantwell’s punches, kicks, elbows, and knees. After weathering the storm in the first round Cantwell looked gassed and it was only a matter of time before Cantwell dropped the hammer.

In the welterweight title fight Carlos Condit successfully defended his title once again prompting the question, “just who is left to fight this guy in the WEC.” Condit has paid his dues and I think I speak for everyone when I say that I want to see this guy in the octagon.

Jamie Varner quieted the critics by stopping a game Marcus Hicks in the first round. Varner hit Hicks with everything but the kitchen sink. At the end of the first Varner unloaded with what must have been 40+ strait strikes to finish the “wrecking ball.” One things for sure…. Hicks is tough, and he’ll be back.

In my head to head show down with Golden Joe Willis in the pick ‘em championship of the world we both went 5-5. Which at first appears to be a tie, but in light of Joe picking the biggest bog of the night (Steve Cantwell), I’ll give him the victory.

We’ll be back tomorrow to start breaking down the fights for the upcoming UFC card, so check back, and as Bas always says, “Godspeed and party on.”

WEC 35 Picks and Plays: BadVibes vs. Golden Joe Willis

Tonite at 9 pm eastern live on Versus we will get the zuffa’s latest installment at WEC 35. My expertise as a handicapper and bettor have been brought into question by Golden Joe Willis, and we will be locking horns in an all out epic pick ‘em slugfest. The winner will have bragging rights until next weekend’s UFC 87.

Main Card

Carlos Condit (-600) vs. Hiromitsu Miura (+450)

BadVibes: This fight is pretty cut and dry. Miura is a tough opponent, but he really can’t hang with Condit anywhere. Condit will be one step ahead the whole fight and finish in the second round via submission.

Golden Joe Willis: Miura’s grit and striking ability are going to be enough to shock the world. That combined with the fact that he looks like Shang Tsung from Mortal Kombat will be enough to score the KO victory.

Brian Stann (-400) vs. Steve Cantwell (+300)

BadVibes: Brian Stann has yet to be taken past the first round against any opponent. Furthermore he has knocked out every single last one of them… oh yeah, one of those guys was Steve Cantwell. There’s no reason to think it will be any different this time. Stann via first round KO.

Golden Joe Willis: Cantwell must feel well about weighing in 4 pounds heavier that his opponent Stann in this light heavyweight rematch. Everyone loves a trilogy, so I’m going with Cantwell by wishful Thinking.

Jamie Varner (-230) vs. Marcus Hicks (+180)

BadVibes and Golden Joe Willis: We’re both going with Hicks by submission in this fight. The win over Rob McCullough was a fluke more than anything. Hicks is a lot for anyone to handle at 155 pounds, and way too much for Jamie Varner. Marcus Hicks by Submission

Brian Bowles (-220) vs. Damacio Page (+180)

BadVibes: Plain and simple… Brian Bowles is a machine. He’s going to take Page to the ground and go to work on him. Even though Bowles hasn’t seen a fight go to decision, I believe the tough Greg Jackson trained fighter, Page, will take him the distance. Bowles by decision.

Golden Joe Willis: I can’t very well pick against any fighter with the nickname “the angel of death”. Page is gonna come out smokin’ hot and end it quick with a violent KO. Page by KO round 1.

Micah Miller (-200) vs. Josh Grispi (+160)

BadVibes and Golden Joe Willis: We’re both in agreement here too with the nod going to Micah Miller. Miller is more experienced at this level and is a solid 145 gatekeeper. He’s like the Karo Parysian of the WEC featherweight division. Joe thinks this one will end by KO, while I think that Grispi will get caught getting over aggressive in a triangle. Miller by submission.

That does it for the main card action… we’re not trying to write a novel here, so the undercard is just picks, no analysis. Enjoy the action tonite and be sure to check back for a recap and final thoughts tomorrow.

Undercard picks

Shane Roller (+180) vs. Todd Moore (-220)
BadVibes: Roller by decision
Golden Joe Willis: Roller by cauliflower ear

Mike Budnik (-220) vs. Greg McIntyre (+160)
BadVibes: McIntyre by decision
Golden Joe Willis: Budnik by submission

Scott Jorgensen (+160) vs. Kenji Osawa (-200)
BadVibes: Jorgensen by decision
Golden Joe Willis: Jorgensen by submission

Blas Avena (+145) vs. Dave Terrel (-175)
BadVibes: Terrel via TKO
Golden Joe Willis: Terrel via KO

Brock Larson (-350) vs. Carlo Prater (+250)
Badvibes: Larson via TKO
Golden Joe Willis: KO

Anderson Silva: Unstoppable?

Since coming to the UFC in June of ’06, Anderson Silva has turned a who’s who of the middleweight division into nothing more than clips for his highlight reel. You have to go all the way back to December of 2004 to find his last legitimate loss (Silva also lost to Yushin Okami during that stretch, but it was due to disqualification in a fight that he was clearly winning). The man who pulled of the David and Goliathesque upset was Pride FC veteran Ryo Chonan. With his back against the wall Chonan caught the “spider” in a flying scissor heel hook… unreal!

In a sport where anything can happen… here it does. Maybe Patrick Cote should brush up on his advanced jui-jitsu?

Pearls of Wisdom: MMA Betting Advice from BadVibes

Don’t throw away your money making bets that have little chance of hitting or offer little return. Betting heavy favorites or heavy underdogs is almost always a bad play. A lot of bettors have learned this the hard way… Myself included. Ever since Matt Serra shocked the world and upset Georges St. Pierre I’ve seen a trend of MMA bettors looking to hit on the next big dog. Take for example Anderson Silva’s most recent fight with James Irvin. Most Sports books had Silva around -500 and Irvin anywhere between +325 to +400. A lot of experts were impressed by Irvin’s comments in the media leading up to the fight and thought that a bigger, pure muay thai fighter could give the pound for pound champ a run for his money. Hell, if you watched Irvin’s highlight reel enough times you could have probably convinced anyone he had at least a punchers chance. The truth is either way you could have bet this fight it had no value. A winning bet on Anderson Silva only had a %20 return. To make a bet on Irvin one would have to assume that he wins that fight more than %25 of the time. When in actuality Irvin probably only wins that fight 1 out of 10 times… and that’s being kind of generous. The underlying point here is that the bet has no value either way in a strait wager. The only way for a bettor to make any value here was to take Silva in some sort of parlay.

Remember: Dogs are dogs for a reason! They have little to no shot of winning. So stop looking for the next Matt Serra and make reasonable bets. Personally, I don’t like to bet fighters that are any more than a 3 to 1 underdog or a 3 to 1 favorite. These are sucker bets, and you’ll do yourself and your pocketbook a favor by staying away from them.

BJ Penn: A champion outside the cage

The state of Hawaii awarded their native son, BJ Penn, for various civic achievements this week. Penn most recently captured the UFC interim lightweight championship belt from Joe Stephenson at UFC 80 and then defended his title against Sean Sherk at UFC 84. It’s expected that he will either meet the winner of the upcoming Huerta vs. Florian match-up for his next fight… or who knows? Rumors have been circulating that he could fight GSP provided the Canadian can get past John Fitch in their UFC 87 title bout.

It’s always nice to hear about these guys giving something back to the community. Kudos BJ.

James Irvin tests positive for banned substances

Following his UFC Fight Night 14 loss to Anderson Silva, James Irvin has tested positive for Methadone and Oxymorphone. Methadone, a drug commonly given to heroin addicts to ween them from the drug, and oxymorphone are heavy duty pain killers. My guess is he may need some more after that crushing defeat at the hands of the “spider.”

The results for all other fighters on the card were negative. Irvin has a period of 20 days to dispute the findings or he will most likely be fined and suspended.

Ricardo Arona UFC debut?

Former Pride FC 205 lb. contender Ricardo Arona disclosed to sherdog.com this week that the UFC is top on his list of potential suitors. “Because it (UFC) offers the best proposals and the best fighters, and it’s the best event and best show.” The Brazilian stand-out also went on to say that he thinks the rules in the UFC favor his style of fighting, citing the cage and the shorter 5 minute opening round. Clearly the cage has benefited many a ground and pound fighters before him.

It will be interesting to see how Arona will look after a year+ of lay-off from the sport. His recent inactivity, as he puts it, was to watch how the sport is changing from the outside. Can he make an impact in the most talent rich division all of MMA… who knows. All I know is that another top 10 caliber fighter can’t hurt, and we may get to see the rubber match between him and Wanderlei Silva. Sounds good to me.

UFC 84: Picks and Analysis

B.J. Penn (-280) vs. Sean Sherk (+210)

This fight all comes down to technique vs. athleticism. Can the prodigy's technique overcome the athleticism of a stronger fighter like Sherk.

Since he debuted in the UFC in 2001, no one has questioned the impecable technique of the Hilo, Hawaii native B.J. Penn. There has never been a more decorated American BJJ practitioner ever. What has been questioned time and time again is his conditioning, which no doubt will be tested by the high pace of Sherk. His fight history includes wins over future hall of famer Matt Hughes, Takanori Gomi, Caol Uno, and Jens Pulver, just to name a few. His only losses are to top tier opponents like Pulver, Hughes, GSP, and Machida. Everything about this fight screams that it will be dominated by Penn.

Sherk on the other hand has relied on his athleticism to grind out decision victories, and while the fans might not like this, his talent is still undeniable. In over 30 proffessional fights he has only lost to Matt Hughes and GSP. While his fight history is filled with a lot of no-name fighters, there are several notable wins. Sherk has bested UFC #1 lightweight contender Kenny Florian, Hermes Franca, Nick Diaz, and Karo Parisian (twice). At 155 pounds there is not a stronger fighter in MMA, just look at the guy, there's not anymore room on a 155 pound frame for more muscle. Sherk formerly held the belt that Penn now has, and was stripped of it when he tested positive for performance enhancing drugs. An allegation that he has denied from the get go.

Despite the common opinion that Penn will dominate this fight I goint to have to give the nod to Sherk on this one. B.J. hasn't gone 5 rounds with anyone since his draw to Caol Uno in 2003. The only other time he went 5 rounds was in a losing effort against Jens Pulver a year earlier. Sherk on the other hand has gone 5 full rounds in his last 2 fights winning both. In fact Matt hughes is the only man to take Sherk the distance in a chamionship fight and win. That and the fact that Sherk has never been submittted are the reasons I pick him to grind out another win and take back his belt.

Note here that if the odds were different I would make a bet for Penn. I just think this line is way off. This fight is a coin flip and B.J. is almost a 3 to 1 favorite. The bet on Sherk is a value bet. The odds-makers should have seen this fight closer, because of that I'll lay my bet on Sherk.

Sherk wins via Unanimous Decision

Keith Jardine (+140) vs. Wanderlei Silva (-180)


Is Keith Jardine the real deal? Who knows who we'll see in this fight; the Jardine that bested former UFC light heavyweight champion Chuck Liddell and current contender Forrest Griffen, or the guy who was knocked senseless by the questionable Houston Alexander. Jardine's strength in this fight is in the stand-up game. He has an awkward style, much like Machida, and a substantial reach advantage against the smaller brazillian. Coming out of Greg Jackson's camp you know he will have a solid gameplan and be ready to fight.

Wanderlei on the other hand is coming off of 3 strait losses. Which s something that I think people are concentrating way too much on. Ask yourself this: Would you have bet on Jardine a year ago? If you answered yes to that question then stop reading this and go watch some TUF re-runs. The casual UFC fan hasn't seen the Ax murderer that terrorized Pride for nearly a decade. He holds 2 convincing wins over current light heavyweight champ Quentin Jackson, and has fought a who's who list of top competition. Wanderlei will likely look to win this fight from the clinch and blast Jardine out with those famous knees.

I don't see this fight being nearly as close as the bookmakers. No disrespect to Jardine, but I think that Silva is going to run strait through him. He'll probably eat some shots on the way in, clinch up, and finish Jardine with strikes from the inside. Don't blink this one will be over quick!

Silva wins via KO


Tito Ortiz (+165) vs. Lyoto Machida (-210)


Let me preface this pick by saying that I am not a Tito Ortiz fan. Watching the highlights of him getting KO'd by Liddell ranks as one of my favorite past-times. That being said... I think he'll win this fight.

Machida is a very technical southpaw striker who has given his opponents fits up to this point. He opened a lot of peoples eyes with his decisive win over Sokodjou, but other than the African Assasin who has he beat at 205 lbs. ? Notable names like B.J. Penn, Rich Franklin, and Stephan Bonnar are in his fight history, but that doesn't really impress me. Both Penn and Franklin were fighting above thier natural weight class, and Bonnar he defeated early in th American Psycho's career. In order to win this fight he'll need to keep it standing and stuff Tito's takedowns.

Love him or hate him the Huntinton beach bad boy has a very impressive resume. In the last 8 years his only losses have been to hall of famer Randy Couture, and future hall of famer Chuck Liddell. He's fought the best of the best ot 205 and beaten most of them. This fight comes down to big fight experience and Tito has that in spades. There's no question that he's going to look to take this fight to the ground and pound out a victory. Machida has never fought someone as relentless as Ortiz, and Ortiz's pace will be too much for the newly crowned UFC posterboy to handle.

Ortiz wins via Unanimous decision


Wilson Gouveia (-155) vs. Goran Reljic (+125)


Not much is known about the Croation Reljic who fights out of Gracie Barra UK. There is something to be said about a fighter that is undefeated, but if you read between the lines, he's only beaten 1 fighter with a winning record. Beating cans in Europe is one thing, but beating a game competitor in Gouveia is another. Gouveia has a solid (4-1) record in the UFC. His only loss came by decision to Keith Jardine. Both fighters have a solid jui-jitsu backround, but Gouveia has shown that he can get it done standing as well. He showed that with his devastating KO of Jason Lambert in is last outing. This is an easy pick for Gouveia.

Gouveia wins via KO


Thiago Silva (-660) vs. Antonio Mendes (+510)


Thiago Silva is one of the best kept secrets at 205. All the attention thats been given to Machida should have been focused on Silva, a fighter that is both good and exciting. Any BJJ practitioner that has won 10 of 12 fights by KO is dangerous, and thats exactly what Silva has done in route to a perfect record. Mendes is a relative unknown making his UFC debut against a superior fighter. This one is an easy pick... but due to the lopsided line I put no action on this fight.

Silva wins via KO


Undercard: I'm not going to get too in depth with the undercard fights. There are some really good looking bouts on the undercard, but with 11 fights on this card, doing the analysis of all of them is like writing a short novel, so I'll keep these brief,

Ivan Salaverry (-145) vs. Rousimar Palhares (+115)

Ivan Salaverry is a solid well rounded fighter, while the brazillian Palhares is a top level BJJ practitioner. The books see Salaverry as a favorite primarily because he's the known name and he's never been submitted. That's because he's never fought anyone with the jui-jitsu skills of Palhares. I'm not betting this fight, but if I did, I would make a small bet on Palhares. Palhares via Submission.

Sokodjou (-245) vs. Kazuhiro Nakamura (+195)

Sokodjou will be looking to rebound after a disappointing loss to Lyoto Machida in his last outing. Nakamura's last fight incidentally was also against Machida and also a loss. Both figters are world class Judokas. The difference is Sokodjou's superior stand-up. Sokodjou via KO.

Rich Clementi (-215) vs. Terry Etim (+175)

The line on this fight is right where it should be. Clementi given his experience and recent win streak should be about a 2 to 1 favorite. Etim looked impressive in his decision loss to tough opponent Gleison Tibau. His 6 foot frame is a lot to deal with for any 155 pounder, but a submission specialist like Clementi will look to take advantage of those lanky limbs. Clementi via Submission.

Jon Koppenhaver (+135) vs. Yoshiyuki Yoshida (-165)

Both these guys like to stand up and bang. I'll definitely be catching this one on UFC on demand when the fights are over. I like War Machine in this one. He is the bigger more physical fighter and Japanese fighters have struggled recently in the cage as opposed to a ring fight. Koppenhaver via KO.

Jason Tan (+260) vs. Dong Hyun Kim (-310)

I guess when you're name is Dong you'd better know how to fight. It's kind of like being the boy named Sue, but only worse. Kim will be the first of the new breed Korean fighters to get it on in the UFC. Tan is a UK product that had his octogon debut ended quickly by Marcus Davis. I don't know enough about either of these guys to make a very educated pick. For the same reasons as above (Japanese fighters have not faired well in the cage) I pick Jason Tan in this one. Jason Tan via Triangle Choke.

Christian Wellisch (+160) vs. Shane Carwin (-200)

Wellisch has done alright for himself inside the octagon. He has amassed a (2-1) record, losing only to Chieck Kongo. Carwin will be fighting his UFC debut and is set to show everyone why he is the next big thing...literaly. Carwin is a true heavyweight, cutting weight to make the classes 265 lb. weight limit. He is undefeated and certainly don't see Wellisch changing that. He will over power his smaller opponent both in the stand up and on the ground and win a lopsided decision victory. Carwin via Unanimous Decision.


Thats it for my picks. Feel free to leave a comment and post your own picks. Good betting to you all.