B.J. Penn (-280) vs. Sean Sherk (+210)
This fight all comes down to technique vs. athleticism. Can the prodigy's technique overcome the athleticism of a stronger fighter like Sherk.
Since he debuted in the UFC in 2001, no one has questioned the impecable technique of the Hilo, Hawaii native B.J. Penn. There has never been a more decorated American BJJ practitioner ever. What has been questioned time and time again is his conditioning, which no doubt will be tested by the high pace of Sherk. His fight history includes wins over future hall of famer Matt Hughes, Takanori Gomi, Caol Uno, and Jens Pulver, just to name a few. His only losses are to top tier opponents like Pulver, Hughes, GSP, and Machida. Everything about this fight screams that it will be dominated by Penn.
Sherk on the other hand has relied on his athleticism to grind out decision victories, and while the fans might not like this, his talent is still undeniable. In over 30 proffessional fights he has only lost to Matt Hughes and GSP. While his fight history is filled with a lot of no-name fighters, there are several notable wins. Sherk has bested UFC #1 lightweight contender Kenny Florian, Hermes Franca, Nick Diaz, and Karo Parisian (twice). At 155 pounds there is not a stronger fighter in MMA, just look at the guy, there's not anymore room on a 155 pound frame for more muscle. Sherk formerly held the belt that Penn now has, and was stripped of it when he tested positive for performance enhancing drugs. An allegation that he has denied from the get go.
Despite the common opinion that Penn will dominate this fight I goint to have to give the nod to Sherk on this one. B.J. hasn't gone 5 rounds with anyone since his draw to Caol Uno in 2003. The only other time he went 5 rounds was in a losing effort against Jens Pulver a year earlier. Sherk on the other hand has gone 5 full rounds in his last 2 fights winning both. In fact Matt hughes is the only man to take Sherk the distance in a chamionship fight and win. That and the fact that Sherk has never been submittted are the reasons I pick him to grind out another win and take back his belt.
Note here that if the odds were different I would make a bet for Penn. I just think this line is way off. This fight is a coin flip and B.J. is almost a 3 to 1 favorite. The bet on Sherk is a value bet. The odds-makers should have seen this fight closer, because of that I'll lay my bet on Sherk.
Sherk wins via Unanimous Decision
Keith Jardine (+140) vs. Wanderlei Silva (-180)
Is Keith Jardine the real deal? Who knows who we'll see in this fight; the Jardine that bested former UFC light heavyweight champion Chuck Liddell and current contender Forrest Griffen, or the guy who was knocked senseless by the questionable Houston Alexander. Jardine's strength in this fight is in the stand-up game. He has an awkward style, much like Machida, and a substantial reach advantage against the smaller brazillian. Coming out of Greg Jackson's camp you know he will have a solid gameplan and be ready to fight.
Wanderlei on the other hand is coming off of 3 strait losses. Which s something that I think people are concentrating way too much on. Ask yourself this: Would you have bet on Jardine a year ago? If you answered yes to that question then stop reading this and go watch some TUF re-runs. The casual UFC fan hasn't seen the Ax murderer that terrorized Pride for nearly a decade. He holds 2 convincing wins over current light heavyweight champ Quentin Jackson, and has fought a who's who list of top competition. Wanderlei will likely look to win this fight from the clinch and blast Jardine out with those famous knees.
I don't see this fight being nearly as close as the bookmakers. No disrespect to Jardine, but I think that Silva is going to run strait through him. He'll probably eat some shots on the way in, clinch up, and finish Jardine with strikes from the inside. Don't blink this one will be over quick!
Silva wins via KO
Tito Ortiz (+165) vs. Lyoto Machida (-210)
Let me preface this pick by saying that I am not a Tito Ortiz fan. Watching the highlights of him getting KO'd by Liddell ranks as one of my favorite past-times. That being said... I think he'll win this fight.
Machida is a very technical southpaw striker who has given his opponents fits up to this point. He opened a lot of peoples eyes with his decisive win over Sokodjou, but other than the African Assasin who has he beat at 205 lbs. ? Notable names like B.J. Penn, Rich Franklin, and Stephan Bonnar are in his fight history, but that doesn't really impress me. Both Penn and Franklin were fighting above thier natural weight class, and Bonnar he defeated early in th American Psycho's career. In order to win this fight he'll need to keep it standing and stuff Tito's takedowns.
Love him or hate him the Huntinton beach bad boy has a very impressive resume. In the last 8 years his only losses have been to hall of famer Randy Couture, and future hall of famer Chuck Liddell. He's fought the best of the best ot 205 and beaten most of them. This fight comes down to big fight experience and Tito has that in spades. There's no question that he's going to look to take this fight to the ground and pound out a victory. Machida has never fought someone as relentless as Ortiz, and Ortiz's pace will be too much for the newly crowned UFC posterboy to handle.
Ortiz wins via Unanimous decision
Wilson Gouveia (-155) vs. Goran Reljic (+125)
Not much is known about the Croation Reljic who fights out of Gracie Barra UK. There is something to be said about a fighter that is undefeated, but if you read between the lines, he's only beaten 1 fighter with a winning record. Beating cans in Europe is one thing, but beating a game competitor in Gouveia is another. Gouveia has a solid (4-1) record in the UFC. His only loss came by decision to Keith Jardine. Both fighters have a solid jui-jitsu backround, but Gouveia has shown that he can get it done standing as well. He showed that with his devastating KO of Jason Lambert in is last outing. This is an easy pick for Gouveia.
Gouveia wins via KO
Thiago Silva (-660) vs. Antonio Mendes (+510)
Thiago Silva is one of the best kept secrets at 205. All the attention thats been given to Machida should have been focused on Silva, a fighter that is both good and exciting. Any BJJ practitioner that has won 10 of 12 fights by KO is dangerous, and thats exactly what Silva has done in route to a perfect record. Mendes is a relative unknown making his UFC debut against a superior fighter. This one is an easy pick... but due to the lopsided line I put no action on this fight.
Silva wins via KO
Undercard: I'm not going to get too in depth with the undercard fights. There are some really good looking bouts on the undercard, but with 11 fights on this card, doing the analysis of all of them is like writing a short novel, so I'll keep these brief,
Ivan Salaverry (-145) vs. Rousimar Palhares (+115)
Ivan Salaverry is a solid well rounded fighter, while the brazillian Palhares is a top level BJJ practitioner. The books see Salaverry as a favorite primarily because he's the known name and he's never been submitted. That's because he's never fought anyone with the jui-jitsu skills of Palhares. I'm not betting this fight, but if I did, I would make a small bet on Palhares. Palhares via Submission.
Sokodjou (-245) vs. Kazuhiro Nakamura (+195)
Sokodjou will be looking to rebound after a disappointing loss to Lyoto Machida in his last outing. Nakamura's last fight incidentally was also against Machida and also a loss. Both figters are world class Judokas. The difference is Sokodjou's superior stand-up. Sokodjou via KO.
Rich Clementi (-215) vs. Terry Etim (+175)
The line on this fight is right where it should be. Clementi given his experience and recent win streak should be about a 2 to 1 favorite. Etim looked impressive in his decision loss to tough opponent Gleison Tibau. His 6 foot frame is a lot to deal with for any 155 pounder, but a submission specialist like Clementi will look to take advantage of those lanky limbs. Clementi via Submission.
Jon Koppenhaver (+135) vs. Yoshiyuki Yoshida (-165)
Both these guys like to stand up and bang. I'll definitely be catching this one on UFC on demand when the fights are over. I like War Machine in this one. He is the bigger more physical fighter and Japanese fighters have struggled recently in the cage as opposed to a ring fight. Koppenhaver via KO.
Jason Tan (+260) vs. Dong Hyun Kim (-310)
I guess when you're name is Dong you'd better know how to fight. It's kind of like being the boy named Sue, but only worse. Kim will be the first of the new breed Korean fighters to get it on in the UFC. Tan is a UK product that had his octogon debut ended quickly by Marcus Davis. I don't know enough about either of these guys to make a very educated pick. For the same reasons as above (Japanese fighters have not faired well in the cage) I pick Jason Tan in this one. Jason Tan via Triangle Choke.
Christian Wellisch (+160) vs. Shane Carwin (-200)
Wellisch has done alright for himself inside the octagon. He has amassed a (2-1) record, losing only to Chieck Kongo. Carwin will be fighting his UFC debut and is set to show everyone why he is the next big thing...literaly. Carwin is a true heavyweight, cutting weight to make the classes 265 lb. weight limit. He is undefeated and certainly don't see Wellisch changing that. He will over power his smaller opponent both in the stand up and on the ground and win a lopsided decision victory. Carwin via Unanimous Decision.
Thats it for my picks. Feel free to leave a comment and post your own picks. Good betting to you all.
This fight all comes down to technique vs. athleticism. Can the prodigy's technique overcome the athleticism of a stronger fighter like Sherk.
Since he debuted in the UFC in 2001, no one has questioned the impecable technique of the Hilo, Hawaii native B.J. Penn. There has never been a more decorated American BJJ practitioner ever. What has been questioned time and time again is his conditioning, which no doubt will be tested by the high pace of Sherk. His fight history includes wins over future hall of famer Matt Hughes, Takanori Gomi, Caol Uno, and Jens Pulver, just to name a few. His only losses are to top tier opponents like Pulver, Hughes, GSP, and Machida. Everything about this fight screams that it will be dominated by Penn.
Sherk on the other hand has relied on his athleticism to grind out decision victories, and while the fans might not like this, his talent is still undeniable. In over 30 proffessional fights he has only lost to Matt Hughes and GSP. While his fight history is filled with a lot of no-name fighters, there are several notable wins. Sherk has bested UFC #1 lightweight contender Kenny Florian, Hermes Franca, Nick Diaz, and Karo Parisian (twice). At 155 pounds there is not a stronger fighter in MMA, just look at the guy, there's not anymore room on a 155 pound frame for more muscle. Sherk formerly held the belt that Penn now has, and was stripped of it when he tested positive for performance enhancing drugs. An allegation that he has denied from the get go.
Despite the common opinion that Penn will dominate this fight I goint to have to give the nod to Sherk on this one. B.J. hasn't gone 5 rounds with anyone since his draw to Caol Uno in 2003. The only other time he went 5 rounds was in a losing effort against Jens Pulver a year earlier. Sherk on the other hand has gone 5 full rounds in his last 2 fights winning both. In fact Matt hughes is the only man to take Sherk the distance in a chamionship fight and win. That and the fact that Sherk has never been submittted are the reasons I pick him to grind out another win and take back his belt.
Note here that if the odds were different I would make a bet for Penn. I just think this line is way off. This fight is a coin flip and B.J. is almost a 3 to 1 favorite. The bet on Sherk is a value bet. The odds-makers should have seen this fight closer, because of that I'll lay my bet on Sherk.
Sherk wins via Unanimous Decision
Keith Jardine (+140) vs. Wanderlei Silva (-180)
Is Keith Jardine the real deal? Who knows who we'll see in this fight; the Jardine that bested former UFC light heavyweight champion Chuck Liddell and current contender Forrest Griffen, or the guy who was knocked senseless by the questionable Houston Alexander. Jardine's strength in this fight is in the stand-up game. He has an awkward style, much like Machida, and a substantial reach advantage against the smaller brazillian. Coming out of Greg Jackson's camp you know he will have a solid gameplan and be ready to fight.
Wanderlei on the other hand is coming off of 3 strait losses. Which s something that I think people are concentrating way too much on. Ask yourself this: Would you have bet on Jardine a year ago? If you answered yes to that question then stop reading this and go watch some TUF re-runs. The casual UFC fan hasn't seen the Ax murderer that terrorized Pride for nearly a decade. He holds 2 convincing wins over current light heavyweight champ Quentin Jackson, and has fought a who's who list of top competition. Wanderlei will likely look to win this fight from the clinch and blast Jardine out with those famous knees.
I don't see this fight being nearly as close as the bookmakers. No disrespect to Jardine, but I think that Silva is going to run strait through him. He'll probably eat some shots on the way in, clinch up, and finish Jardine with strikes from the inside. Don't blink this one will be over quick!
Silva wins via KO
Tito Ortiz (+165) vs. Lyoto Machida (-210)
Let me preface this pick by saying that I am not a Tito Ortiz fan. Watching the highlights of him getting KO'd by Liddell ranks as one of my favorite past-times. That being said... I think he'll win this fight.
Machida is a very technical southpaw striker who has given his opponents fits up to this point. He opened a lot of peoples eyes with his decisive win over Sokodjou, but other than the African Assasin who has he beat at 205 lbs. ? Notable names like B.J. Penn, Rich Franklin, and Stephan Bonnar are in his fight history, but that doesn't really impress me. Both Penn and Franklin were fighting above thier natural weight class, and Bonnar he defeated early in th American Psycho's career. In order to win this fight he'll need to keep it standing and stuff Tito's takedowns.
Love him or hate him the Huntinton beach bad boy has a very impressive resume. In the last 8 years his only losses have been to hall of famer Randy Couture, and future hall of famer Chuck Liddell. He's fought the best of the best ot 205 and beaten most of them. This fight comes down to big fight experience and Tito has that in spades. There's no question that he's going to look to take this fight to the ground and pound out a victory. Machida has never fought someone as relentless as Ortiz, and Ortiz's pace will be too much for the newly crowned UFC posterboy to handle.
Ortiz wins via Unanimous decision
Wilson Gouveia (-155) vs. Goran Reljic (+125)
Not much is known about the Croation Reljic who fights out of Gracie Barra UK. There is something to be said about a fighter that is undefeated, but if you read between the lines, he's only beaten 1 fighter with a winning record. Beating cans in Europe is one thing, but beating a game competitor in Gouveia is another. Gouveia has a solid (4-1) record in the UFC. His only loss came by decision to Keith Jardine. Both fighters have a solid jui-jitsu backround, but Gouveia has shown that he can get it done standing as well. He showed that with his devastating KO of Jason Lambert in is last outing. This is an easy pick for Gouveia.
Gouveia wins via KO
Thiago Silva (-660) vs. Antonio Mendes (+510)
Thiago Silva is one of the best kept secrets at 205. All the attention thats been given to Machida should have been focused on Silva, a fighter that is both good and exciting. Any BJJ practitioner that has won 10 of 12 fights by KO is dangerous, and thats exactly what Silva has done in route to a perfect record. Mendes is a relative unknown making his UFC debut against a superior fighter. This one is an easy pick... but due to the lopsided line I put no action on this fight.
Silva wins via KO
Undercard: I'm not going to get too in depth with the undercard fights. There are some really good looking bouts on the undercard, but with 11 fights on this card, doing the analysis of all of them is like writing a short novel, so I'll keep these brief,
Ivan Salaverry (-145) vs. Rousimar Palhares (+115)
Ivan Salaverry is a solid well rounded fighter, while the brazillian Palhares is a top level BJJ practitioner. The books see Salaverry as a favorite primarily because he's the known name and he's never been submitted. That's because he's never fought anyone with the jui-jitsu skills of Palhares. I'm not betting this fight, but if I did, I would make a small bet on Palhares. Palhares via Submission.
Sokodjou (-245) vs. Kazuhiro Nakamura (+195)
Sokodjou will be looking to rebound after a disappointing loss to Lyoto Machida in his last outing. Nakamura's last fight incidentally was also against Machida and also a loss. Both figters are world class Judokas. The difference is Sokodjou's superior stand-up. Sokodjou via KO.
Rich Clementi (-215) vs. Terry Etim (+175)
The line on this fight is right where it should be. Clementi given his experience and recent win streak should be about a 2 to 1 favorite. Etim looked impressive in his decision loss to tough opponent Gleison Tibau. His 6 foot frame is a lot to deal with for any 155 pounder, but a submission specialist like Clementi will look to take advantage of those lanky limbs. Clementi via Submission.
Jon Koppenhaver (+135) vs. Yoshiyuki Yoshida (-165)
Both these guys like to stand up and bang. I'll definitely be catching this one on UFC on demand when the fights are over. I like War Machine in this one. He is the bigger more physical fighter and Japanese fighters have struggled recently in the cage as opposed to a ring fight. Koppenhaver via KO.
Jason Tan (+260) vs. Dong Hyun Kim (-310)
I guess when you're name is Dong you'd better know how to fight. It's kind of like being the boy named Sue, but only worse. Kim will be the first of the new breed Korean fighters to get it on in the UFC. Tan is a UK product that had his octogon debut ended quickly by Marcus Davis. I don't know enough about either of these guys to make a very educated pick. For the same reasons as above (Japanese fighters have not faired well in the cage) I pick Jason Tan in this one. Jason Tan via Triangle Choke.
Christian Wellisch (+160) vs. Shane Carwin (-200)
Wellisch has done alright for himself inside the octagon. He has amassed a (2-1) record, losing only to Chieck Kongo. Carwin will be fighting his UFC debut and is set to show everyone why he is the next big thing...literaly. Carwin is a true heavyweight, cutting weight to make the classes 265 lb. weight limit. He is undefeated and certainly don't see Wellisch changing that. He will over power his smaller opponent both in the stand up and on the ground and win a lopsided decision victory. Carwin via Unanimous Decision.
Thats it for my picks. Feel free to leave a comment and post your own picks. Good betting to you all.
