UFC Fight Night 15 Picks and Predictions

Due to feverish efforts to get the new website up and running, I’ve once again neglected to do a fight breakdown. Just so I can sleep tonight, I’m going to give you a quick run down of the fights, and my picks. In the future our picks will be available in a newsletter. We will still post them on the blog, but every event there will be a newsletter to let you know how we’re picking.

Tonight’s offering, UFC Fight Night 15, is not laden with star power, but is stacked with great match-ups. Starting from the top; I can’t wait to see Nate Diaz fight again. He will be locking horns with Miletich product Josh Neer, in what will probably be his stiffest test to date. Diaz was the season 5 TUF winner and has looked impressive since the close of the show. Neer, while big and tough, is hardly remarkable. I see him pushing the pace early, but falling into a Diaz submission late in the second or early in the third round.

In the other big bout of the night Clay Guida takes on another TUF winner in Mac Danzig. Guida has proven to be both exiting and durable, but has always come up just short it the big fights. Mac Danzig on the other hand is a more well-rounded fighter with an impressive record, but I just don’t see Danzig making it happen tonight. Guida has got cardio that makes marathon runners sick and I think he will push “the violent vegan” to a unanimous decision. This one is really close, and I think it will be the fight of the night.

Dangerous striker Alan Belcher takes on Ed Herman, in a battle of the beatens. Both fighters are coming off of high profile losses. Herman was dispatched by Demian Maia in his last outing, and Belcher got blasted by UFC newcomer Jason Day. Clearly both of these men would like to rebound with a win, but alas, only one shall pass. Herman’s ground game and wrestling are going to be enough to frustrate the “Talent” and ride him to a unanimous decision victory.

Nebraska native Houston Alexander will be fighting tonight with his career on the line. Dana White has said that if Alexander doesn’t perform well tonite that it could be back to the minors for him. I don’t think he’ll need any more motivation in this fight because, quite frankly, he’s just going to demolish his opponent. Eric Shafer has never showed me any signs of being special, and tonight he is just serving as a stepping stone, first round KO for Alexander. This one will be over quick.

So for the record my picks are:

Nate Diaz
Clay Guida
Ed Herman
Houston Alexander
Alessio Sakara
Wilson Gouveia
Jou Lauzon
Jason Brilz
Mike Massenzio
Dan Miller

Plays:

I don’t like the lines on this card. I’m only going to make 2 small safe bets here:
Massenzio (+320) for 1 unit
Parlay Diaz and Alexander for 2 units

Keeping it safe with the tight lines again, looks like the capper’s are starting to get the hang of this MMA thing. Check back tomorrow for a re-cap of last nights events. It should a great night of fights.