The Real Deal: Brock Lesnar

In the male soap-opera we call professional wrestling, Brock Lesnar has been at the top of the food chain. Tonight he proved to the world that he’s a contender in the world of non-scripted fighting. Plain and simple Lesnar just overwhelmed his opponent, Heath Herring, the entire fight. Credit to Herring to hang in there for 15 minutes, but he was on the bad side of one hell of an epic beatdown. Can anyone really deal with Lesnar’s size and strength? He’s a rookie in the grand scheme of things, and tonight he handed a seasoned veteran a humbling loss.

Let’s get strait to the point… Brock Lesnar is going to hoist UFC heavyweight gold one day. It’s just a shame that he got into this sport so late. If Lesnar had as much experience as Herring, we’d be talking about him instead of Fedor as the heavyweight #1.

UFC 87: Fight Predictions

In just 3 hours fans in Minnesota will get to see the states first ever UFC fight card. There’s some interesting action going down tonight, so let’s break down the fights.

Jon Fitch vs. Georges St. Pierre

GSP comes into this fight a heavy favorite in the sportsbook’s eyes. Fitch is seen as an almost 3 to 1 dog in this fight, and while there’s been a lot of talk about Fitch giving GSP more of a fight than we expect, I think this line is right on. St. Pierre is one of the best p4p fighters in the world, and Fitch while a tough and worthy competitor, does not have the tools to take the fight to GSP in any realm. This one might start slow, Fitch might even take the first round, but GSP will find his rythym and finish the fight via TKO in the third round.

Brock Lesnar vs. Heath Herring

What could make a guy with a 1-1 record a favorite over a fighter with 40 pro fights. When that guy is Brock Lesnar. As much as I want to see the former WWE wrestler get his ass handed to him, I know it won’t happen. Herring was taken down at will in the Jake O’brien fight, and Lesnar’s wrestling is on a whole different level. This fight is going to be quick, so don’t blink. Lesnar by TKO in the opening minutes.

Kenny Florian vs. Roger Huerta

Does anyone have a coin? You might as well flip a coin to pick this fight because its going to be razor tight. I give the edge to Florian because of his experience in big fights. Huerta always seems to dig his way out of trouble in every fight, and Kenny Florian is not a guy that will let you get away with it. All of his 9 career victories have been decisive finishes… that being said I think that Huerta will be the first guy to take Florian to a decision. Florian by unanimous decision

Manny Gamburyan vs. Rob Emerson

Expert Judoka and umpa-lumpa body double Manny Gamburyan will take on Rob Emerson in an interesting fight. This is a classic grappler vs. striker match-up. For just a strait prediction I have to go with Gamburyan via decision, but the line on this fight is off. These two fighters are much more evenly matched than the 3 to 1 favorite Gamburyan would tell you. For my prediction I’ll be sticking with Gamburyan, but the line dictates that I need to make a play on Emerson…. This is going to be a very boring close fight.

Damian Maia vs. Jason MacDonald

If this were a jui jitsu match there would be no doubt that Maia would dominate, but its not, it’s MMA. Maia’s ground prowess is impressive, but he is way too one dimensional. The “Athlete” has enough skill to keep the fight standing and punish Maia. Another red flag that I see with Maia is his conditioning. After the first round of the Ed Herman fight Maia was gassing. That’s a dangerous proposition when Jason MacDonald is standing across the cage from you. I see MacDonald’s well rounded attack paying dividends and he wins via decision.

Undercard

McCrory over Cummo via TKO
Kongo over Evenson via KO
Gusmao over Jones via Sub.
Wilson over Bruno via Sub.
Saunders over Thomas via Decision

That’s the picks for this card folks. I really like the line on the Tamden McCrory fight. He’s a total beast and he is going to smoke Luke Cummo. This fight is a lock, and I’m going to have some action on it for sure. Enjoy the fights and be sure to check back for a re-cap after the fight.

UFC 90: Rumored Showdowns in the Windy City

October 25th, 2008, the UFC will hold its first ever show in my hometown Chicago, Illinois. Being a city with such a rich boxing and fighting tradition, it’s suprising to me that it’s taken this long. The only confirmed bout at this time is Anderson Silva vs. Patrick Cote for the UFC middleweight title. The “Spider” will look to continue turning top 185 pounders into clips for his highlight reel. While the Canadian, Cote, will look to shock the world ala Matt Serra vs. GSP I.

Also rumored to be on the card are a trio of solid lightweight bouts. Melvin Guillard will lock horns with Spencer Fisher in what’s sure to be a barnburner. Guillard rebounded from consecutive losses in the octagon with a brutal KO of Denis Siver at UFC 86. Fisher, a Miletich product, will look to build off his win over Jeremy Stephens at the most recent TUF finale. Sean Sherk is also rumored to be returning to action at UFC 90. He will face the fight of the night king Tyson Griffin in a lightweight contender elimination bout. Hermes Franca is also rumored to be in action in the windy city against American Top Team standout Gleison Tibau. Both are coming off of a loss, so this should be a good one.

There have also been rumors of Fabricio Werdum, Cain Velasquez, and Antoni Hardonk representing the heavyweights at the showdown in the second city. In addition Diego Sanchez will meet Thaigo Alves to more than likely determine who will get a crack at the winner of GSP vs. Fitch.

This card is shaping up to be a good one… Hope to see you there.

Quentin Jackson Fires Jaunito Ibarra

Inside MMA is reporting that Quentin “rampage” Jackson has fired trainer and manager Juanito Ibarra. Just a short while back Jackson was crediting Ibarra with turning his career around. I guess the honeymoon is over. Right now it seems Jackson would be better served concentrating on his mounting legal problems than on his management. The news comes on the heels of losing his light heavyweight belt to Forrest Griffin. No word on who will be managing ”rampage” now, or even when he’ll be ready to fight. I just hope he gets things sorted out. He seems like a good guy, and the match-ups at 205 are so much better with him in there.

Bas Rutten: Godpeed and Party On

I’m sure anyone reading this has probably seen this video, but it’s a classic, and can never be watched enough. So bong, bong, bong, dedang, adedang, adedang… enjoy!

Affliction:Day of Reckoning

Affliction has announced that it will be moving forward with its sophomore attempt on October, 11th in Las Vegas, Nevada. There are a lot of rumors circulating as to who will be fighting on the latest card, but the only official match-up pits 2 former UFC heavyweight champions against each other. Andrei “the pitbull” Arlovski will face “the babyface assassin” Josh Barnett in the nights main event. Both fighters are coming off of impressive wins at Affliction: Banned, and will look to grab the #1 contender spot and a future throw-down with Fedor Emelianenko.

Also rumored to be on the card is a 205 pound bout between Renato “babalu” Sobral and former UFC light heavyweight champion Tito Ortiz. It baffles me how these 2 never met inside the octagon. Ortiz will be looking to rebound after a lack-luster effort against Lyoto Machida in his last fight with the UFC. Also rumored to be on the card is a rematch between Vladamir Matyushenko and Antonio Rogerio Nogueira. “Little nog” looked impressive in his win at the last affliction card over Edwin Dewees

Vitor Belfort and Matt Lindland could also lock horns at the “day of reckoning” card for the WAMMA middleweight belt. Now I like both these fighters, but I thought WAMMA was supposed to crown the best fighter in each weight class, and right now there’s not an educated MMA fan that would tell you anyone other than Anderson Silva is the top dog. An interesting fight nonetheless. Lindland looked gassed in his last fight and Vitor looked like the “phenom” of old. This is a fight that Matt Lindland can’t afford to take lightly. If he does Belfort is going to eat him up.

Tim Sylvia, Aleksander Emelianenko, Pedro Rizzo, and former IFL heavyweight champ Roy Nelson are also rumored to be fighting. Most of this is just speculation right now… More to come when we get word.

WEC 35: Recap

Well, the weekend has come and gone, and we’ve all been treated to a action packed fight card courtesy WEC 35. Carlos Condit and Jamie Varner looked impressive as they both finished their opponents and defended their belts. Brian Stann on the other hand was handed a beating he won’t soon forget in his rematch with the new light heavyweight champ Steve Cantwell.

Stann came out and intended to bang with Cantwell, and bang he did. He banged his face right into Cantwell’s punches, kicks, elbows, and knees. After weathering the storm in the first round Cantwell looked gassed and it was only a matter of time before Cantwell dropped the hammer.

In the welterweight title fight Carlos Condit successfully defended his title once again prompting the question, “just who is left to fight this guy in the WEC.” Condit has paid his dues and I think I speak for everyone when I say that I want to see this guy in the octagon.

Jamie Varner quieted the critics by stopping a game Marcus Hicks in the first round. Varner hit Hicks with everything but the kitchen sink. At the end of the first Varner unloaded with what must have been 40+ strait strikes to finish the “wrecking ball.” One things for sure…. Hicks is tough, and he’ll be back.

In my head to head show down with Golden Joe Willis in the pick ‘em championship of the world we both went 5-5. Which at first appears to be a tie, but in light of Joe picking the biggest bog of the night (Steve Cantwell), I’ll give him the victory.

We’ll be back tomorrow to start breaking down the fights for the upcoming UFC card, so check back, and as Bas always says, “Godspeed and party on.”

WEC 35 Picks and Plays: BadVibes vs. Golden Joe Willis

Tonite at 9 pm eastern live on Versus we will get the zuffa’s latest installment at WEC 35. My expertise as a handicapper and bettor have been brought into question by Golden Joe Willis, and we will be locking horns in an all out epic pick ‘em slugfest. The winner will have bragging rights until next weekend’s UFC 87.

Main Card

Carlos Condit (-600) vs. Hiromitsu Miura (+450)

BadVibes: This fight is pretty cut and dry. Miura is a tough opponent, but he really can’t hang with Condit anywhere. Condit will be one step ahead the whole fight and finish in the second round via submission.

Golden Joe Willis: Miura’s grit and striking ability are going to be enough to shock the world. That combined with the fact that he looks like Shang Tsung from Mortal Kombat will be enough to score the KO victory.

Brian Stann (-400) vs. Steve Cantwell (+300)

BadVibes: Brian Stann has yet to be taken past the first round against any opponent. Furthermore he has knocked out every single last one of them… oh yeah, one of those guys was Steve Cantwell. There’s no reason to think it will be any different this time. Stann via first round KO.

Golden Joe Willis: Cantwell must feel well about weighing in 4 pounds heavier that his opponent Stann in this light heavyweight rematch. Everyone loves a trilogy, so I’m going with Cantwell by wishful Thinking.

Jamie Varner (-230) vs. Marcus Hicks (+180)

BadVibes and Golden Joe Willis: We’re both going with Hicks by submission in this fight. The win over Rob McCullough was a fluke more than anything. Hicks is a lot for anyone to handle at 155 pounds, and way too much for Jamie Varner. Marcus Hicks by Submission

Brian Bowles (-220) vs. Damacio Page (+180)

BadVibes: Plain and simple… Brian Bowles is a machine. He’s going to take Page to the ground and go to work on him. Even though Bowles hasn’t seen a fight go to decision, I believe the tough Greg Jackson trained fighter, Page, will take him the distance. Bowles by decision.

Golden Joe Willis: I can’t very well pick against any fighter with the nickname “the angel of death”. Page is gonna come out smokin’ hot and end it quick with a violent KO. Page by KO round 1.

Micah Miller (-200) vs. Josh Grispi (+160)

BadVibes and Golden Joe Willis: We’re both in agreement here too with the nod going to Micah Miller. Miller is more experienced at this level and is a solid 145 gatekeeper. He’s like the Karo Parysian of the WEC featherweight division. Joe thinks this one will end by KO, while I think that Grispi will get caught getting over aggressive in a triangle. Miller by submission.

That does it for the main card action… we’re not trying to write a novel here, so the undercard is just picks, no analysis. Enjoy the action tonite and be sure to check back for a recap and final thoughts tomorrow.

Undercard picks

Shane Roller (+180) vs. Todd Moore (-220)
BadVibes: Roller by decision
Golden Joe Willis: Roller by cauliflower ear

Mike Budnik (-220) vs. Greg McIntyre (+160)
BadVibes: McIntyre by decision
Golden Joe Willis: Budnik by submission

Scott Jorgensen (+160) vs. Kenji Osawa (-200)
BadVibes: Jorgensen by decision
Golden Joe Willis: Jorgensen by submission

Blas Avena (+145) vs. Dave Terrel (-175)
BadVibes: Terrel via TKO
Golden Joe Willis: Terrel via KO

Brock Larson (-350) vs. Carlo Prater (+250)
Badvibes: Larson via TKO
Golden Joe Willis: KO

Anderson Silva: Unstoppable?

Since coming to the UFC in June of ’06, Anderson Silva has turned a who’s who of the middleweight division into nothing more than clips for his highlight reel. You have to go all the way back to December of 2004 to find his last legitimate loss (Silva also lost to Yushin Okami during that stretch, but it was due to disqualification in a fight that he was clearly winning). The man who pulled of the David and Goliathesque upset was Pride FC veteran Ryo Chonan. With his back against the wall Chonan caught the “spider” in a flying scissor heel hook… unreal!

In a sport where anything can happen… here it does. Maybe Patrick Cote should brush up on his advanced jui-jitsu?

Pearls of Wisdom: MMA Betting Advice from BadVibes

Don’t throw away your money making bets that have little chance of hitting or offer little return. Betting heavy favorites or heavy underdogs is almost always a bad play. A lot of bettors have learned this the hard way… Myself included. Ever since Matt Serra shocked the world and upset Georges St. Pierre I’ve seen a trend of MMA bettors looking to hit on the next big dog. Take for example Anderson Silva’s most recent fight with James Irvin. Most Sports books had Silva around -500 and Irvin anywhere between +325 to +400. A lot of experts were impressed by Irvin’s comments in the media leading up to the fight and thought that a bigger, pure muay thai fighter could give the pound for pound champ a run for his money. Hell, if you watched Irvin’s highlight reel enough times you could have probably convinced anyone he had at least a punchers chance. The truth is either way you could have bet this fight it had no value. A winning bet on Anderson Silva only had a %20 return. To make a bet on Irvin one would have to assume that he wins that fight more than %25 of the time. When in actuality Irvin probably only wins that fight 1 out of 10 times… and that’s being kind of generous. The underlying point here is that the bet has no value either way in a strait wager. The only way for a bettor to make any value here was to take Silva in some sort of parlay.

Remember: Dogs are dogs for a reason! They have little to no shot of winning. So stop looking for the next Matt Serra and make reasonable bets. Personally, I don’t like to bet fighters that are any more than a 3 to 1 underdog or a 3 to 1 favorite. These are sucker bets, and you’ll do yourself and your pocketbook a favor by staying away from them.